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Voted for the 2nd option, but actually I have two different answers. First, for 3dx or 3dcg production in general to become easy enough for most users. And second, for them to become realistic.
For the first point, I generally think most of the software/hardware tools needed in the workflow is somewhat here, but they're generally still too cumbersome and don't have good interopability, let alone integration.
Quality, resolution and production time are sides of the same coin (or triangle/box, whatever).
For animation work, you want to render frames as fast as possible (below 10-20 seconds per frame) while keeping a reasonable standard of quality. Obviously, some leeway exist here, but the general aim is pre-viz quality and not final renders (you make do with shortcuts with shadows and reflections/refractions).
There's no way around it. If you want the so called photorealistic quality, either resolution and/or production time suffers. We're not even talking about costs.
There's some progress, I have to admit. If you want to go as fast as possible and as cheap as possible, combine consumer graphics cards and rasterization solutions like Nitrous/Quicksilver in MAX, FurryBall in Maya or game engines like CryEngine/Unreal. GPU path tracers are either not fast enough, not good enough or too limited to be of practical use (due to memory constraints and lack of interoperability).
Don't forget there's also the art side, which is sorry to say, very lacking.
Even now, without hacks, models don't have limbs that bend correctly. Clothes WILL have pokethroughs when you pose them with any pose other than the default pose. Most pants/panties will not look right when you use sitting poses. Hair is a mess to work with unless you opt for one that's short and static. Genitals are basically bolt-on props. There's a definite lack of good, animated poses, be it general or specific to 3dx.
As for realism? That's still a very long way off. 3DCG skin still don't behave like real skin. They're completely absent of vellus hair. Creases and wrinkles don't adapt/react to skin/limb movements or expressions. Blush and flush are mostly baked in. Tendons don't show themselves when you flex muscles. Let's not forget texture stretching/compression artifacts.
For me its speed of production. Sadly theres only Poser and Daz Studio yet if you dont want to build everything yourself. And the workflow of both is not really intuitive nor quick and fluid.
I am sure that once theres better integration with kinect it will become alot quicker to produce alot of stuff. Just imagine not having to pose hands and arms manually but instead just use kinect and move your hands and arms around instead of every joint in every finger. Hand and arm positions are usually what makes a pose look realistic or not, so improving the ease of posing those parts will go a looong way.
I think quality wise it can be obtained now depending on what you need. Personally atm i don't want something that looks so real you can't tell the difference, i get that from my photography, so thats not an issue.
Two things i would like to see is , renders that can be produced in an instant and the ability to make clothing, models ..etc in quick time and animations just as quick.
What im really trying to say is, speed to make things happen , the quality i think is there already.